Anc Discussion Document - Second Transition

Part D. THE GLOBAL CONTEXT OF OUR SECOND TRANSITION

An internationalist movement



113. Strategy and Tactic notes that from its inception the ANC evolved as part of the

progressive forces in the world in the struggle against colonialism, racism, poverty,

underdevelopment and gender oppression. It contributed towards the progressive

forces, as well as learning from other struggles and experiences. The movement

contributed to the modern-day narrative of revolution: participatory democracy, gender

equality, human rights, social justice, non-racialism, freedom, self-determination and

human solidarity.



114. While the ANC was formed as an organised political response of the Africans to military

defeat in their disparate wars of resistance to colonial conquest, its founders soon came

to the recognition that the anti-colonial struggle in Africa was part and parcel of the

world-wide struggle for a peaceful, just, equitable and humane world. During the

century of its evolution, the ANC became a champion of progressive internationalism and

a disciplined force of the left on the African continent.



Globalisation



115. South Africa started its political transition in 1994 in the midst of a new era of

globalisation. This era is characterised by a global economy that had the following

central features (7). Firstly, it was kick-started by breakthroughs in new technologies

(micro-electronics, computing, telecommunications, optic-electronics and biogenetic

engineering) and secondly by informationalism made possible by these technologies.

Used together or in combination, these technologies (and the advances in transport)

raised knowledge and information to a new and central position in the historical

development of capital. As a result, core economic activities became internationalised,

such as financial markets and highly mobile capital, high value-added exports,

transnational corporations (TNCs), science and technology, and the markets for high

skilled labour.

116. The structure of global production also changed, with corporations becoming

transnational, by outsourcing production, in the process producing a single product from

different components manufactured in different parts of the world. Thus globalisation

refers to a set of processes that makes parts of the world increasingly integrated, with

interdependent firms, production is linked on a global scale, there is a dramatic increase

in trade, and national economies are linked.



117. These developments in the global economy, however, should not only be described

simply in terms of economic integration. What has also occurred is a ‘qualitative shift in

the mode of social organisation’, with speculative finance capital using globally uniform

indicators of creditworthiness to decide which firms and governments can borrow money

and on which terms, with enormous power not only in transnational corporations, but in

what is called a ‘new global ruling class’.



118. The changes in the global economy and social organisation also took place in the context of and were shaped by the hegemony of the ideological paradigm of neoliberalism. In part a response to Keynesian economic thinking, but building on earlier liberal theorists,

neoliberalism proclaims a fundamentalist faith in the efficiency of markets. Therefore its

policy prescripts are liberalisation, free trade and a limited role of the state. Only what

has efficiency has value, with the market and its ‘laws’ as the sole criteria for efficiency.

All other ethical criteria are devalued as inefficient. Neo-liberalism is therefore grounded

on the radical rejection of all other alternatives; problems with the impact of its

prescripts are not because of its assumptions, but because of implementation

deficiencies. Thus “if there is unemployment and social exclusion, if there is starvation

and death in the periphery of the world system, that is not the consequences of the

deficiencies or limits of the laws of the market; these result rather from the fact that

such laws have not yet been fully applied” (8). Thus states (especially in the developing

world), according to this paradigm, have no alternatives but to play by ‘global rules’

determined by the powerful; their autonomy is restricted and their policy options limited.

119. A recurrence of crisis in the global system (Asia, followed by Argentina) and evidence

from the Asian developmental states, as well as the rise of the so-called antiglobalisation

movement and work by progressive intellectuals worldwide, have

challenged this hegemony throughout the last two decades.

120. South Africa’s transition took place at the height of this paradigm, a paradigm that

influenced, shaped and constrained our policy choices.

A crisis of capitalism?

121. The ANC marks its first centenary in a period in which the world is experiencing

profound and potentially seismic shifts. These developments include a multiple crisis

unfolding in the heart of the global capitalist economy, the USA and Eurozone; a major

shift in global production and consumption that is the driving force of the dramatic rise

of the developing economies; growth in the global population; and potentially

catastrophic environmental degradation and climate change.



122. Let us first examine the multiple crises of modern-day capitalism. The ANC was born into a world dominated by rampant western imperialism, saw the rise and fall of socialist

states, and came into power in an era of triumphalist neo-liberal capitalism. At the start

of its second century of existence, capitalism is going through multiple crises – financial,

economic, systemic, intellectual, ecological and moral. Capitalism faces a “civilizational

crisis” of unprecedented proportions. What do we mean?



123. In his 1956 treatise, “The Anti-capitalist Mentality”, Ludwig von Mises propagated this

argument around the “civilizing mission” of western capitalism:

“The characteristic feature of modern capitalism is mass production of goods destined for

consumption by the masses. The result is a tendency towards a continuous improvement

in the average standard of living, a progressing enrichment of the many. Capitalism

deproletarianizes the ‘common man’ and elevates him to the rank of ‘bourgeois’…It is the

ascension of the multitude in which the radical social change brought about by the

‘Industrial Revolution’ consists. Those underlings who in all the preceding ages of history

had formed the herds of slaves and serfs, of paupers and beggars, became the buying

public, for whose favour the businessmen canvass. They are the customers who are

‘always right’, the patrons who have the power to make poor suppliers rich and rich

suppliers poor”.



124. During the 19th and 20th centuries, capitalism was presented as the best and most

efficient and rational way of organising society and ordering social and economic

relations in line with changing human needs. The major advances in culture, science,

technology and general improvement in standards of living have been attributed to the

dynamic nature and ‘civilizing mission’ of capitalism. Any critique of the logic and limits

of capitalism was countered with all arsenals and by all means necessary. The collapse

of ‘existing socialism’ and the end of the Cold War in the late 1980s was hailed as the

irreversible triumph of the capitalist system. According to Francis Fukuyama (The End of

History and The Last Man, 1990), the 1990s marked a historic era in which capitalism

had established itself, irrefutably, as the optimum mode of social and economic

organisation that held better prospects for human progress.



125. However, the first decade of the 21st century represents a different reality. Neo-liberal

capitalism faces a new and deeper crisis. The triumphalism of the last two decades of

the 20th century has faded and a new period of uncertainty and vulnerability has begun.

Public debates about whether capitalism will survive the current crisis abound.



126. The G20 leaders issued a statement after their Summit in April 2009 that captured the

situation as follows:

“We face the greatest challenge to the world economy in modern times; a crisis which

has deepened since we last met, which affects the lives of women, men and children of

every country, and which all countries must join together to resolve. A global crisis

requires a global solution.”



127. The World Bank’s most recent Report on Global Economic Prospects (January 2012),

paints a very dire picture of the past year:



“The global economy is at a very difficult juncture. The financial system of the largest

economic bloc in the world is threatened by a fiscal and financial crisis that so far eluded

policymakers’ efforts to contain it. Outside of Europe, high-income country growth,

though strengthening, remains weak in historical perspective…These are not auspicious

circumstances, and despite the significant measures taken, the possibility of a further

escalation of the crisis in Europe cannot be ruled out. Should this happen, the ensuing

global downturn is likely to be deeper and longer-lasting than the recession of 2008/2009

because countries do not have the fiscal and monetary space to stimulate the global

economy or support the financial system to the same degree as they did in 2008/2009…

No country or no region will escape the consequences of a serious downturn.”



128. The combined impact of the global financial crisis, the food and fuel crises, the effects of global warming, the increasing militarisation of UN interventions and simultaneous rise of

extremist movements has far-reaching implications for humanity. Human survival,

progress and security stand at the crossroads. Thus there is an emerging consensus

across the world about the need to return to notions such as ‘shared growth’ and

‘regulated markets’, which were obliterated by neo-liberalism. The chronic and

unprecedented nature of the current global crisis is widely acknowledged.



The developing world



129. What is happening in the developing world? What are the implications of the shift in

global production and consumption away from the developed western countries to the

developing world? What are the long-term implications of this shift?



130. There is a major shift in economic and political power towards emerging economies that have formed an economic bloc composed of Brazil, Russia, India, China and, recently,

South Africa (BRICS). The BRICS countries have the following potential and power that

will have a decisive impact on the future:



• These countries already hold 41% of global foreign exchange reserves.

By 2030 (if not earlier), BRICS countries will rival G7 in the size of their economies.

China will become the largest economy, the US will fall second and India will be

third. Brazil will overtake Japan as the fourth. Already, China has overtaken Japan in

2010 and Brazil has overtaken both the United Kingdom and France much earlier

than expected.

New companies from BRICS countries are taking their place as players and leaders.

Sixty-two of the Fortune Global 500 companies are from BRIC countries, especially

state-owned companies in the energy, telecoms and financial sector.

Forty-three percent of the world population already resides in the BRIC countries,

excluding South Africa. The new workforce – younger and more skilled – is going to

come from the developing world due to the ageing population of Europe and the US.



131. The hegemony of the Bretton Woods prescriptive paradigm is therefore not as rock-solid as it was during the start of our transition. This has been in part as a result of evidence

from Asia countries about the role of the developmental state in driving their economic

miracles; in part because of the emergence of the anti-globalisation movement and

expressed in the movement of movements, the World Social Forum; and finally because

of the worst global crisis since the Great Depression. This has also seen the emergence

of other concepts such as ‘state capitalism’ to describe alternatives to the dominant

Western models of capitalism.



132. In our lifetime, we are therefore witnessing seismic shifts in global economic and

political power relations. The transition to a world dominated by economies other than

western industrialised countries is underway. Thus, the West can no longer unilaterally

determine the global economic (and therefore also the political) agenda. The G8 has to

large extent made way for the G20, contributing towards greater multi-polarity.



133. We should however be careful about not overstating the potential impact of these

economic shifts on global geopolitics. While economic power may be shifting, the US

military strength is still greater than the next 10 powers combined. We will therefore

continue to have strong elements of uni-polarity, even in the context of an unfolding

multi-polarity.



The state of the left and global progressive forces



134. These developments have opened greater space for progressive alternatives, but much

of the global left have either abandoned left projects and ideas after the collapse of the

Soviet Union (or chosen the path of Third Way-ism), or have been slow to make use of

the space and provide alternative visions. Our assessment of the Socialist International

should also be informed by this search for global progressive alternatives.

135. What is particularly baffling is that the European left has been losing elections more

comprehensively than ever before in the midst of the global economic and financial crisis

– there is a meltdown of the left all over Europe during the recent financial meltdown.

Rightwing parties have been the beneficiaries of the current crisis. The disarray in the

left is a result of the intellectual and moral vacuum created by the absence of a robust

and compelling alternative to neo-liberalism.



136. The most vocal alternatives, if not entirely coherent, come from the counter-hegemonic, social and union movements. These movements, although clear that they struggle against neo-liberal globalisation, in themselves are not clear whether it is a struggle

against a form of capitalism or capitalism in general (9).



What is further interesting about these global counter-hegemonic movements is that they represent a break with  (Western) left traditions: although they include movements from the North, their orientation is South-facing; they do not comfortably conform to the traditional Left/Right ideological divide (often as skeptical of social democracy as they are of Marxism); their theoretical foundation is based on the concept that there are always alternatives – hence their positioning as counter-hegemonic.



Globalisation’s winners and losers



137. There are three other themes worth mentioning emerging from the debate about

globalisation. The first arises from the analysis of globalisation’s ‘winners and losers’,

that once again brings focus to the issue of inequality, not only between nations and

regions, but within countries, developed and developing alike. There is general

agreement that the world has the productive capacity and resources to meet the basic

needs of the current global population, yet there remains the fundamental issue of the

distribution of the spoils.



138. We have therefore seen a renewed focus on ‘social cohesion’, the need for mitigating

factors in the face of inequality as well as the debate about redistribution policies. The

global financial crisis, with its exposure of the excesses of those at the top, who then

expect ordinary tax-payers to bail them out while they continue to evade taxes, has

raised this matter even sharper. South Africa needs to be part of the community of

nations that contribute towards finding solutions to this vexing issue of inequality.



A new lost generation?



139. The second is the impact of globalisation on young people. While technology has opened the world to the new generations of young people in developed and developing worlds alike, successive ILO Global Employment Trends for Youth reports have drawn attention to the ever worsening employment situation of young people, with one in three between the ages of 18 and 24 unemployed, and the rate of youth unemployment remaining consistent at three times that of the rate for adults. The global youth employment rate has dropped 8% over the last twenty years (1991-2011). In the developed world, with

youth constituting one out of every four of the long-term unemployed, they are now

talking about a ‘lost generation’.



Globalisation as a gendered phenomenon



140. Globalisation as a gendered phenomenon means that it affects men and women

differently and that the socio-economic changes it brought about also affects the power

relations involved in masculine domination (10). In this regard, the following trends are

highlighted. The first is the feminisation of labour over the last twenty years, with large

numbers of women entering paid employment in addition to the unpaid and subsistence

work they provide in the family and community. This is seen as an outflow of

globalisation, the shift towards the services sector and towards informalisation and

flexibility of employment. Employers deliberately seek to employ women workers

because they are seen as more docile than men, they are paid lower wages, work in

worse conditions and with much greater job insecurity.



141. The second trend is the feminisation of poverty, with women more likely to be and stay

poor, with over 70% of the world’s poor being female. As Mary Hawkesworth shows (11)

“the reduction in the number of state employees affects women disproportionately as

they tend to be the ones working in social welfare agencies, schools and hospitals. At

the same time, the parts of the state that are not negatively affected by privatisation

tend to be male dominated: police, military, commerce and finances. In this sense,

structural adjustment policies contribute to a ‘regendering of the state’ on the basis of

male privilege. Additionally, the loss of jobs in the formal (formally contracted and paid)

economy tends to push women into the informal sector (informalisation) with low pay

and no recognition.”



142. The final trend is that of women and migration, which this quote from Hawkesworth

illustrates: “[S]ome 60 million women, drawn predominantly from poor nations,

constitute a mobile labour force criss-crossing the globe in search of livelihood. Certain

migratory circuits have been well-mapped: South Asia to the Middle East, former Soviet

states to Western Europe, Mexico and Central America to Canada and the United States,

and Africa to Europe.” These migrants are usually employed as domestic workers, care

workers or sex workers, because of what Ehrenreich and Hochschild (12) call the ‘care

deficit.’ With the increase of women in the workforce in richer countries, someone else

has to take on the care they can no longer perform. This care deficit is the pull factor

that attracts migrant women to core countries. At the same time, the care deficit exists

because, as women took on jobs outside of the house, men have not increased their

participation in housework. On average, a woman still spends 15 hours more than a

male partner on housework, not counting childcare. In this sense, the availability of

migrant women has not only allowed women in wealthy countries to join the workforce

(they have already done that for both personal and economic reasons), but it has

allowed men to not take on their share of housework (13).



143. Thus while the first waves of the feminist and women movements have seen advances

globally in terms of greater awareness of women’s and gender issues reflected in policy

and legal reforms, globalisation has added new dimensions and there has been a global

backlash (including in South Africa). This backlash has taken the form of a return to

‘family values’ of the religious and cultural right. More fundamentally, despite increasing

labour market participation of women, very little has changed in terms of patriarchal

relations of production and reproduction. All countries across the globe report

widespread feminisation of poverty and inequality and persistent gender disparities in

income and ownership, to the extent that it was a conservative government in Norway

that had to introduce forced quotas for company boards.



144. Despite these challenges, the Beijing movement continues to provide a focus for

women’s and gender struggles across the globe, with the women’s organisations and

movements from the South, including Africa, making important strides, as reflected in

the adoption of gender policies guiding SADC and AU institutions and countries.



Prospects for the regeneration of Africa in the 21st century



145. What are the implications of the global balance of power for Africa and what prospects

are there for Africa’s regeneration in the new century?



146. At the beginning of the last century, African intellectuals and leaders articulated their

own perspectives on the future of the African continent. Despite the spectre of colonial

conquest, such perspectives were extremely far-sighted and eternally optimistic. In his

1906 seminal article on the Regeneration of Africa, Pixley ka Isaka Seme articulated a

powerful vision of a new post-colonial Africa:



“The brighter day is rising upon Africa…Yes the regeneration of Africa belongs to this new

and powerful period…The African people possess a common fundamental sentiment

which is everywhere manifest…crystallizing into one common controlling idea…the

regeneration of Africa means that a new and unique civilization is soon to be added to

the world”.





147. In the Wretched of the Earth, written in 1961, Frantz Fanon expressed his total rejection of European civilization and modernity as the model that must be emulated by postcolonial African states:



“We today can do everything, so long as we do not imitate Europe, so long as we are not

obsessed by the desire to catch up with Europe…Yet it is true that we need a model, and

that we want blueprints and examples…When I search for Man in the technique and the

styles of Europe, I see only a succession of negations of man, and an avalanche of

murders. The human condition, plans for mankind and collaboration between men in

those tasks which increase the sum total of humanity are new problems, which demand

true inventions. Let us decide not to imitate Europe; let us combine our muscles and our

brains in a new direction. Let us try to create the whole man, whom Europe has been

incapable of bringing to the triumphant birth.”



148. Kwame Nkrumah, the founding Prime Minister of Ghana, Africa’s first independent state, had this to say about his vision for a united and progressive Africa in his 1961 book, I

Speak of Freedom:



“Divided we are weak; united, Africa could become one of the greatest forces for good in

the world. I believe strongly and sincerely that with the deep-rooted wisdom and dignity,

the innate respect for human lives, the intense humanity that is our heritage, the African

race, united under one federal government, will emerge not as just another world bloc to

flaunt its wealth and strength, but as a Great Power whose greatness is indestructible

because it is built not on fear, envy and suspicion, nor won at the expense of others, but

founded on hope, trust, friendship and directed to the good of all mankind.”



149. The first generation of African freedom fighters and leaders of the independence

movement was very critical of the excesses of western civilization and modernity. Their

experiences of the brutality of slavery, colonialism, imperialism neo-colonialism

foreground their attitude to “European modernity” and “western civilisation”. They did

not want post-colonial and independent Africa to model itself along the lines of European

modernity, as they saw in this system exploitation of those who are different in terms of

race, class and gender. They wanted to industrialise and modernise their societies in a

manner that reinforces the humanist and progressive foundations of traditional African

societies. This is the new civilization and modernity that Seme, Nkrumah and Fanon

spoke about.



150. On matters pertaining to international relations, the first generation of African freedom

fighters articulated a view that Africa was an equal partner and important player. They

were critical of the colonial and imperialist narrative that sought to project everything

African as backward and inferior. They held a view that Africa has played an important

role in the evolution of human civilization and progressive modernity. They had a shared

belief and an optimistic view that Africa had something better to offer humanity.



151. Of course, the past half century of neo-colonial plunder and political mismanagement

has destroyed the dream of our forebears. By the time of our transition to democracy,

the failure of the post-colonial state and the plunder of Africa’s natural resources by

political elites dominated the public discourse and narratives on Africa. The preindependence

African dream of a new Africa that places humanity and people’s interests

at the centre, was severely undermined by the incompetence, greed and corruption of

the self-serving political and business elites. This contributed to the continued

marginalisation of the continent and the pathological Afro-pessimism that is the

dominant attitude about anything African.



152. The liberation of Namibia and South Africa and the third wave of democratisation that

also swept through our continent provided an opportunity to chart a different course for

the continent. The articulation that a different Africa is possible, through the concept of

an African renaissance, saw the transformation of our continental institutions of

governance, the reduction of violent conflicts and military rule, and a renewed

commitment to African development and integration. Although this is not uncontested,

our continent began engaging with the world increasingly on its own terms. The African

continent of today is at a qualitatively different stage than at the start of our transition.



153. There is therefore now irrefutable evidence that Africa’s prospects have changed

positively over the past decade. What is even more exciting is that there are real

indications and scientific data showing that the vision of both Seme and Nkrumah seems

more possible in the next three-to-five decades than in the previous century. These

indications are directly related to the dynamics in the global economy.



154. What are some of the emerging positive trends that position Africa as the next big

investment frontier over the next 50 years? The following macro-trends are worth taking

note of:



After China and India, Africa is the next biggest investment frontier for American and

European businesses trying to escape the pitfalls of government budget cuts,

shrinking incomes, ageing populations and saturated markets.

By 2032, Africa’s population is likely to overtake that of China and India. By 2050,

Africa could have a more youthful, skilled workforce than China and India, and thus

become more attractive to even Chinese and Indian businesses, in addition to Anglo-

American businesses.

Africa’s GDP has shown impressive growth in the past decade. It is the third fastest

growing region after Asia and the Middle East. It is now roughly equal to that of

Russia or Brazil (US$1.6 trillion in 2008) and will increase to US$2.6 trillion in 2015.

Africa’s 900 million people had a purchasing power of $860 billion in 2008, more than

India’s 1.2 billion people. Between 2007 and 2010, it was only the continents of

Africa and Asia that had positive growth rates.



The International Monetary Fund (IMF) reports that 47 sub-Saharan countries

experienced a growth rate of more than 5% in 2010 during the global recession,

while Ethiopia, Mozambique, Angola and Rwanda each rose by more than 10%.

Africa’s commodity boom, infrastructure development and agriculture are the key

drivers of its growth. Retail, telecommunications, energy, financial services and food

production are key sectors fueling the African economy.

What accounts for Africa’s impressive growth rates are the following factors:

population growth, urbanisation, improved macroeconomic management, relative

political stability, growth in remittances and foreign investment, more effective

foreign aid, and debt relief.

Over the past decade, the volume of trade between Africa and Asia has increased

from 13% in 1990 to 28% in 2010, while trade between Africa and Europe has

decreased from 51% to 28% in the same period. In the same period, 50% of Africa’s

trade is with Asia, Brazil and the Middle East as opposed to 28% in 1990.



155. Thus, as global economic power begins to shift from the west to the east, Africa’s geopolitical position is assuming greater significance. The current economic crisis in the

developed countries and the rise of China and India are two macro trends that work to

Africa’s advantage, given the continent’s natural resource endowments and the

demographic profile of its workforce. The renewed geo-political interest in Africa,

especially its natural resources and potential markets, is leading to fresh attempts by

former colonial and other global powers to reclaim the ground we have gained in terms

of African self-determination, as reflected in Cote d’Ivoire, Libya and more recently in the

contest for the soul of the African Union. This requires of the ANC and other progressive

forces to ensure that we indeed make progress with the transformation of this important

continental instrument, and that we have a deliberate and long term programme to build

the core of progressive forces, and the widest range of unity to take forward the socioeconomic and political development of the continent.



156. The principal problem of the African revolution is that of social agency. The underdevelopment of this subjective factor is the biggest drawback. The objective conditions

for the 21st century to be an African Century are maturing. However, the political

organisation of the progressive forces is lagging behind.



157. Unless the continent positions itself strategically, what is evidently appearing to be the

advent of the African Century will become another century of missed and wasted

opportunity. The African masses, political leaders and intellectuals should rally and build

a new movement for the renewal and regeneration of the continent. We need to

summon the courage and foresight of the first generation of freedom fighters and

eliminate the legacy neo-colonialism on our shores. We need to build a new generation

of African political and civil society leadership that will serve the interests of the masses

and ensure that growth and development serves the interests of the people.



158. In this regard, the African political and economic institutions need a new institutional

firepower. Democracy, good governance and putting the interests of the citizens first

must receive the utmost attention of the political leadership and institutions. Building

sound democratic institutions, investing in human development and promoting peaceful

development across the entire continent will enhance development prospects.



159. Furthermore, if Africa is set to be the new investment frontier of the world, South Africa has to position itself more strategically to take full advantage of the changing balance of economic forces and shifts in global production, answering such questions as: How much

is Africa on our radar screen? How many patriotic entrepreneurs are pathfinders in the

unexplored and under-serviced African markets? How many of our state-owned

enterprises have made the continent their investment frontier?



160. The ANC must contribute towards the building of new African progressive forces that will be equal to the task of the new century. It is no longer enough to only bank on

yesteryear’s liberation movements. The West has re-established its hegemony in parts of

Africa. Our task is to rebuild a purposeful unity among the old and new like-minded

forces. It is in this context that the ANC has to wake to the reality that unless it positions

itself wisely, others will seek to define the future of the continent without us.

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